Quote:
Originally Posted by nono1973
|
The above is obvious. It is unbelievable that countries as Indonesia (or many other ones, very densely populated) could be virtually exempt from the virus today. The only way to estimate the real impact of coronavirus on deaths is to note the difference of the daily/monthly death rate vs. the average. This difference makes evident much higher death counts than those reported in European countries, imagine in Indonesia where tests are rare.
When I wrote this, earlier today, I did not understand what are the units on the Y axis in the graph above. I thought 3000-4000 deaths per months was a too low number for a city as Jakarta.
Indeed, I was wrong.
I checked the monthly death rate of London (the first city I found with comparable population size as Jakarta): in 2019, there were around 4000 deaths per month.
Both London and Jakarta have a bit less than 10 millions habitants.
I am not surprised that Jakarta may have less deaths than London per month: the average age is much younger in Indonesia than in UK.
In conclusion, yes the above counts must really be the counts of deaths per month in Jakarta.
The difference in March has been about 1000, that is a surge from 3000 to 4000. 1000 deaths in one month for the virus is not a big impact: just 30% more. If the virus hits a city as Jakarta, the expected number of deaths could quickly raise to 10 times more in few days.